There are various versions of this metric -- and it is quite useful in some applications -- but there is a fatal flaw when applying the concept to pass-catchers, as tempting as it might be. That means our models do have some sense of timing. For example, YAC Score looks at the tracking data at the time of catch and makes a prediction of how many additional yards a receiver will typically make, based on the locations, directions and speeds of all 22 players. Here's the best-fit formula: N+1 TPRR = 0.062 + 0.671 * TPRR (R^2 = 0.41) The number of targets a player sees per route happens to be a very sticky metric. This result is a context-adjusted separation over expected (SOE) metric that we can calculate for each NFL receiver. How can a pass catcher win vs. press? For the best in the game, these plays will occasionally pop for huge gains because of their elite speed and run-after-catch ability. YDS. This suggests our metrics are truly isolating three independent skills that comprise receiver ability. Below are a few tables showing the breakdown and thresholds used during this process. When we account for the most impactful context that affects a receivers most important job getting open Thomas is routinely above average in creating that separation. The SPORTS REFERENCE and STATHEAD trademarks are owned exclusively by Sports Reference LLC. At the time, Jernigan had barely seen the field, so he hadnt run many routes, either. And Julios targets have, on average, been worth less than Thomass in the previous three years. Last season there were 32 wide receivers to run at least 300 routes and draw a target on at least 20 percent of their routes. His 207 yards gained on post routes ranked sixth in the league, and he was one of only two receivers to break 200 yards on less than 10 receptions on post routes in 2019 (the other was DeVante Parker, who ranks second in this grouping). . Beasley caught 72% of his targets in 2013; that sounds good, but its not out of line with the catch rate of a lot of other slot receivers. Steelers' first draft under Omar Khan was 'aggressive' and achieved high marks, After hoopla of going No. But in those games he gained 415 yards, and a 103.8 yard per game average while playing with Chad Henne is pretty incredible. When looking at any metric or measurable, it is always best to marry it up with other available data points to paint a clearer picture. Regular-season passes of 5 air yards or less. Last year, Still averaged 1.29 YPRR, Johnson 1.56. Best and worst receiver seasons on short passes as measured by separation over expected (SOE) per play, 2017-19. Average number of seasons as a WR1/WR2 + >250 routes run during rookie year w/ at least 20 targets, Average number of seasons as a WR1/WR2 w/ at least 20 targets during their rookie year (no minimum route run threshold). Tied-65th. Simply put, no one was more prolific on the go route than Parker. Route versatility calculation explanation: If Player A runs a go on 25 percent of routes, a hitch on 19 percent and an out on 12 percent, and the NFL averages are 22 percent, 18 percent and 10 percent respectively, the absolute difference from the average across those three routes would be 3 percent, 1 percent and 2 percent. This problem vexed me for months, but about a year ago I thought of a way to crack it. Our reasoning for presenting offensive logos. He's no DK Metcalf (his 6-4, 229-pound former Ole Miss teammate), but that actually works to his advantage, as his 226 pounds are well-packed into his frame to allow him to box out defenders, catch the ball and then outrun them to the end zone, with a stiff-arm packed in as a complimentary parting gift. The Next Gen Stats Team uses its draft model to identify the five best value picks in Round 1 of the 2023 NFL Draft -- including two Georgia defenders selected by the Philadelphia Eagles. Here's a visualization of route paths sorted by our predicted route type: For training purposes, the tracking data for the wideout model has been normalized such that all the pass catchers are to the left of the quarterback, with the rationale being that the route paths are symmetrical. For example, if there is a cornerback covering a receiver and a safety deep above him who matches the receiver's pattern much more than any other receiver, that receiver is credited with extra attention. REC. Atlanta and the Rams ranked 11th- and seventh-lowest, respectively, in passing plays per game, which helped raise the rankings of their receivers here despite total targets not being especially high. * Selected to Pro Bowl, + First-Team All-Pro. With Jermaine Gresham recovering from an Achilles injury suffered in Week 17, Arizona beat writers are projecting Seals-Jones to enter camp as the starter and with an expanded role in the offense. Let's see Thomas led all wide receivers in yards gained on hitches. Thomas caught 87.9 percent of his targets, landing in the top five in that category. Then we could compare the typical, expected openness for an average receiver to the actual openness assessed by a model looking at tracking data. 1 in the latest NFL Football Power Index? New Orleans Saints (52) In the three seasons for which we have Next Gen data, Thomas has regularly posted high EPA per play values on these short targets and has been above average in creating separation at the catch point in two of the past three seasons. But Thomass numbers are still eye-popping, and his peers in the NFL recently ranked him first among all wide receivers (and fifth overall) in the NFL 100. window.PLAYERCARDS_CONFIG={affiliateCode:"fpros_cards"}; This FantasyPros staff member is an excellent contributor to our site who brings excellent analysis and content. Yards per Target, of course, is very sensitive to outliers. John Bauer is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For instance, DeAndre Hopkins played on over 90 percent of his teams snaps in every game he played last year. Through thirteen games, Jernigan had just 10 catches for 92 yards, and was a forgotten man behind Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks, and Rueben Randle. Live From New York: Will AI Replace This Podcast. For Hopkins, 125 of his 257 came after the catch. 32 lingering post-draft questions: Will Lions have regrets? Forty-eight percent of Thomass 185 targets came on passes 5 yards or less downfield in 2019. Of course, Blackmon missed the first four games of the season for violating the NFLs substance abuse policy, and then received an indefinite suspension for again being in violation of that policy after the Jaguars eighth game of the year. Will the Eagles' pass rush befuddle Patrick Mahomes? In each of four seasons coached by Mike McCoy (now calling plays for the Cardinals), Antonio Gates totaled at least 85 targets. His reception total was also the most in the NFL on go routes (minimum 75 total targets, regardless of route). What is also encouraging is the three components of RTM generally do not correlate with each other. Looking at raw statistics can be somewhat misleading, but looking at yards per route run for a wide receiver actually shows what a player is doing with the opportunity presented to him. I believe this is because PFF includes passing plays called back due to offensive penalties in the number of, Worst Passer Ratings In Every Year Since the Merger, The Top Quarterbacks And The Receivers They Threw It To, Yards per Route Run, Yards per Target, and Targets per Route Run, The History of Black Quarterbacks in the NFL (2023 Update), Brock Purdy Looks To Make Quarterback Super Bowl History, Zach Wilson and The Worst Passer Rating In The NFL, The Eagles Rushing Offense Is Better Than Their Opponents Passing Offense, I suppose one counter to that would be that Stills was competing with. Oct 25, 2020; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Chris Godwin (14) against the Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium. If you are simply a box score watcher, nothing about Chris Godwins rookie season would have gotten you excited. Latest on Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson including news, stats, videos, highlights and more on ESPN The defense is typically willing to allow an offense to throw to wide-open players short, then rally to make a tackle for a short gain. Over the past two seasons, Bell also averages 63.9 snaps per game, or about 11.8 more per game than the next-closest running back (Ezekiel Elliott). Given the array of all 22 players' positions, directions and speeds, the model estimates the probability of a completion. Routes run ranked higher than targets for running backs, and though they ranked lower than targets for wide receivers and tight ends, routes run still ranked highly overall. In other words, only 47.4% of a receivers Yards per Route Run is predictive of his YPRR in Year N+1. For qualifying wide receivers, the overall score correlates with yards per route 00 which I believe is the best conventional stat to measure receiver production -- at 0.76. Seriously, though, it can't be much of a surprise to see these three players at the top for this route. Austin missed five games: weeks 4 and 5 against Denver and Washington, and then weeks 8 through ten against the Lions, Vikings, and Saints. He got 34 receptions, 525 yards, and only one touchdown. So, uh, whats up with that? On average, wide receivers that hit 2.00 yards per route run and run at least 250 routes in their rookie campaign are 41% more likely to be a WR1 at any time during their career than a wide receiver that hit the 2.00 yards per route run threshold alone. Now, by itself, that doesnt make Targets per Route Run a good metric. However, he averaged only 6.3 yards target, leaving Johnson with a poor 1.56 yards per route run average. Ultimately, our separation model ending up including features that account for quarterback arm strength, the receivers separation at the time the QB targeted them, the horizontal and vertical position of the receiver on the field at the time of the throw, where the receiver lined up pre-snap, the distance to the goal line, the amount of break in the receivers route during the footballs journey through the air after it was released, the depth of the QBs drop, the number of other routes that were being run on the play, if the play was a play-action pass or a screen, and the number of deep safeties.3. Specifically, Atlanta ranks 11th-lowest in dropbacks per game over the past three seasons, while Houston, Pittsburgh, and the Giants all rank higher. As technology and the growth of the fantasy football community both continue to boom, so too do the metrics and measurables that present themselves for analysis. Copyright 2010- FantasyPros.com Route data and target data are pretty easy to come by so dividing targets by routes gives us a simple percentage to work with. His YAC on hitches was second-best in the NFL, trailing only Keenan Allen. Did Pats make Mac Jones happy? 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018. Unlike our win-rate metrics for line play, there already are reliable statistics that do a good job of telling us who are the best receivers. Stat. Here, we see that Y/T is not very sticky. Well, the word useful will mean different things to different people. The following browsers are supported: Chrome, Edge (v80 and later), Firefox and Safari. Yet throughout the offseason, NFL analysts have debated whether Thomass production is best explained by his skill and talent, or if instead hes merely a good receiver who runs a lot of slants and benefits from being in an elite offense. Some plays and situations lend themselves to a lot or a little YAC, so YAC Score doesn't measure mere yards but rather the yards the receiver was able to generate beyond the expected amount. You don't currently have any notifications. Timo Riske of Pro Football Focus has shown that the best receivers in the league earn their targets all over the field, so its no surprise to see familiar names in the deep-target SOE ranks. The most important stat for us in relation to Diggs' post-route productivity: touchdowns. The Next Gen Stats analytics team identifies 14 unheralded players who should be kept off the free agency market by their squads. I wanted to then break this down not only by the total number of wide receivers that fell into this bucket, but also by the wide receivers who ran at least 250 routes during their rookie campaign. D'Onta Foreman thrived with the Panthers in 2022. Please see our Contributors and Sources page for data source details. On average, wide receivers that hit 2.00 yards per route run and run at least 250 routes in their rookie campaign are 41% more likely to be a WR1 at any time during their career than a wide . All of Denver, Miami, and Minnesota will have a new quarterback under center, which muddies things here, as does Oakland having a new offensive play-caller (Jon Gruden). For starters, we could look at the top 10 seasons since 2017 (when our data begins). Stefon Diggs can make the seemingly impossible a reality. Passing Rushing Receiving Kicking Returns Defense. The data wizards are back again with another new way to break down some of the game's top weapons. Who has the edge? Running backs saw a 0.87 correlation between raw touches and fantasy points. The Next Gen Stats Team uses its draft model to identify the five best value picks from Day 2 of the 2023 NFL Draft. Catch Score correlates at 0.38, and YAC Score correlates at 0.35. He leads all non-quarterbacks in fantasy points per game over the past two seasons. NFL footage NFL Productions LLC. Diggs led the league in catch rate above expectation (minimum five targets on post routes) last season at +39.9 percent, turning unlikely plays into big gains. NOTE: EPA/target is expected points added per target; this measures the value of individual plays in terms of points comparing the down, distance and field position situation at the start of the play relative to the end of the play. We use pass accuracy data from ESPN's video analysis tracking to adjust both the Catch Score and YAC Score based on the accuracy (high, low, ahead, behind) and intent of the throw. Keegan Abdoo meticulously explains how this could significantly impact Andy Reid's offense -- and fuel Lou Anarumo's defense. When talking about sticky statistics, we are talking about numbers that we can point to with a level of certainty of carrying over year to year. Can Carolina risk letting other teams chase after him? Keegan Abdoo investigates this strength -- and whether it will give Philadelphia an edge over the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LVII. Michael Thomas (3). Basic - Offense; Basic - Defense; Directional - Offense; Directional - Defense; By Team; Other. They won't know it's a hitch until it's a hitch -- if the route is run well. He was off-the-charts good in yards per target (13.9), but saw targets on just 9% of his routes run last year. Mike Band uses the Next Gen Stats Draft Model to spotlight six enticing individuals: three on offense and three on defense. With my hypothesis lined up, it was time to dig into the data. These were somewhat shorter outs, averaging just 8.3 air yards per target, but Thomas still found a way to make the most of them, gaining an average of 2.72 yards after the catch on routes that are typically assigned to finish near the sideline. Which view is correct? In some ways, TPRR is like completion percentage. Similar to wide receivers hitting one WR1 season during their careers, there is a significant jump when looking at the total number of WR1/WR2 seasons once you incorporate a minimum of 250 routes run during a wide receivers rookie season. It also means the entire analysis is conditional on a player actually being targeted. The story of the Cowboys scout and prospect son Dallas just drafted, Legacy pick: Cardinals take great-great-nephew of team's first-ever draft pick, Big takeaways from ESPN's new pass-catcher stats: A.J. Logos were compiled by the amazing SportsLogos.net. ranked him first among all wide receivers, creates and maintains separation from a defender, the conversation for best receiver in the league. If he does not catch the pass, he is debited at minus-0.75. And that makes sense, at least to me. He grew up in Sanford, Florida, where he shined as a receiver for Seminole highschool. The resulting weights tell us a lot about the importance of the three skills. As a result, Stills averaged just 1.29 yards per route run, a pretty unimpressive figure. Hes ranked 22nd, ninth, and 13th in target percentage over the past three seasons. @friscojosh, NFL (976 posts) Of course, when comparing Stills numbers to Johnsons, one might note that Johnson was playing with EJ Manuel and Thaddeus Lewis while Stills was playing with Drew Brees, which provides some explanation for the drastic differences between the two receivers in yards per target. Brown streak across the field at FirstEnergy Stadium in Cleveland in Week 1 last season, I knew he was going to be a problem for defenses in this league. Brown is always open, Kendrick Bourne is underrated, We created better pass-rusher and pass-blocker stats: How they work, Introducing new NFL run-blocking and run-stopping stats: How our metrics work. Find out who the leaders are in standard scoring formats and see which players are available in your fantasy football league. Mike Band uses the Next Gen Stats Draft Model to spotlight six enticing individuals: three on offense and three on defense. In his six games before that, though, Aiyuk was one of the most productive wide receivers in the league, generating 2.44 yards per route run and an 86.3 receiving grade. 41) Yards Per Target, and 1.90 (No. Note: A couple of wide receivers have more pass routes than their teams had pass plays. Can Nick Sirianni successfully match wits with Andy Reid? To account for this effect, Open Score is adjusted for the number of defenders exclusively "assigned" to a receiver. Thats somewhat shocking and perhaps it explains why the number of Landrys short targets dropped by nearly half after he moved to the analytics-friendly Cleveland Browns. So how much insight can we gather from a wide receivers yards per route in his rookie year? Below, we'll reveal the top three receivers for eight different routes, and tell you why the No. There isnt much evidence to support the idea that Mike Thomas is anything but an elite football talent. If you are looking for the raw data behind this article, do not hesitate to reach out. To view standard stats, check out our WR Stats reports. The Giants Jerrel Jernigan not only had a 66% catch rate thats excellent for someone playing with the 2013 version of Eli Manning but he was targeted on a remarkable 28% of his routes in 2013! Ultimately, the hope is these metrics are used to understand and explain how pass-catchers perform, rather than simply ranking them from best to worst. Of those, one was Atlantas Julio Jones, who ran routes on 93% of Atlantas passing plays through the first five games of the year, but missed the final eleven with a fractured foot. It's hard to argue these aren't dominant seasons by elite receivers. The intermediate SOE leaderboard includes seasons from receivers like Davante Adams, Keenan Allen, Danny Amendola, Cooper Kupp and Adam Humphries, all of whom are generally regarded as skilled route runners.
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